In the telephone survey of 500 registered voters, conducted by pollster Ed Renwick, Republican Senator John McCain earns 43 percent of the vote, while Democrat Senator Barack Obama receives 40 percent. Renwick said that amounts to a statistical tie, since the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.
'It's closer than I thought it would be,' said Renwick, adding that the higher the turnout, the worse it might be for McCain.
'That’s because they'll probably be people who don't usually vote, who don't vote often, or weren’t registered to vote until recently. Those people would not be heavy McCain voters. They would be Obama voters.'
McCain gets most of the white vote, 61 percent to Obama’s 21 percent, but Obama just about owns the African-American vote, registering 83 percent to 3 percent for McCain in the poll, conducted for WWL-TV and a consortium of Louisiana television stations.
'McCain is being shut out of the black vote scenario,' said Renwick, a political scientist at Loyola University, who is also WWL-TV’s senior political analyst.
On the question of favorability, Louisiana voters give the two candidates pretty even marks. Sen. Obama registers 47 percent favorable, with Sen. McCain, 45 percent, meaning it is another statistical tie.
'That's good news for Obama and bad news for McCain,' Renwick explained, 'because they’re only separated by two points, and this is supposed to be a McCain state. There should be a much greater differential if this is a McCain state.'
Go to the bottom of the favorability list and you find one reason McCain could be struggling – President George Bush, who earned a favorable rating of only 27 percent in this poll. The president’s 'not very favorable' rating is 54 percent in Louisiana."
|Within The Margin Of Error